Phillies Preview, Part Deux

It's baaack.

3rd Base, or: What Exactly Is So Bad About David Bell?

I still think most of David Bell's perceived suckitude comes from two sources. One would be his initial season in Philadelphia. He'd definitely been publicly wooed by Ed Wade, he was coming off a World-Series year in San Francisco, and he batted .195. Wow. Basically, he was hurt all year, but you can't "play hurt" if it makes you hit .195. The second reason he gets pigpiled upon is that he just looks HELPLESS at the plate. He's a weird personification of all of us in Philly; a little pallid, bleary, unshaven, overmatched by major-league stuff. There's also some talk going around that he's a subpar fielder (see above image). That's not really true - although I've certainly seen him botch a fair number of plays, but in this case, anecdotal evidence doesn't really hold up against facts - bad back and all, David Bell is a actually really good third baseman.

Also - how did we completely lose sight of the fact that he had a career year in 2004?

533 AB, .291 BA, .363 OBP, 18 HR

Aaron Rowand will probably put up a similar line this year, and people will be 90 times more excited about it. Why? Because he won't look like grim, joyless David Bell when he does it. So yeah, basically, Bell isn't as hopeless as he might seem. There's a shot that, if he gets really healthy, his defensive contributions could offset his offensive shortcomings and add up to a replacement-level third baseman. Yes, he was terrible at the plate last year; yes, he grounded into double plays with tremendous resolve; yes, he looks like he has a vitamin deficiency. With all that, the universal chorus of "David Fuckin' Bell" that he stirs up isn't really warranted; he's just a weak link in an otherwise strong lineup.

Catcher:

As is this guy. I actually think Lieberthal has been one of the key links of the Phillies organization for a long time; he seems like a good guy, is moderately funny in local car commercials, and has even had a couple of stellar seasons for a catcher (dude hit 30 home runs in 1999? Jesus.) Along with Bell, he formed the 7-8-9 "black hole" in the lineup spot; essentially, the Phils had power, plate discipline, and (sometimes) clutch hitting at 1-6, and then none of those things at 7-9. 34 is old for a catcher, and I don't see Lieberthal getting any better; hopefully the Phillies will be able to get prospects Carlos Ruiz and Jason Jaramillo some time late this year or next year. I can't really speak for Lieberthal's catching impact; he doesn't throw a lot of guys out, but doesn't make a lot of mistakes, either, and his handling of the pitchers (minus Padilla and Floyd) has seemed pretty solid. Sal Fasano, another old catcher, will be backing up Lieberthal, and will probably hit as many home runs as Lieby in 1/4 the at-bats. Fasano will also hit .250 or below, so there's that. Anyway, if Lieberthal gets hurt, I don't actually see the Phillies being that much less productive.


Left Field:

Ah, Cousin Pat. The Pat Burrell face has been one of the simultaneous joys and despairs of my time in Philly. Pat was #7 in MVP voting last year. That's really weird. Obviously, he was really good for the Phils in 2005; .281, 32 HR, and 117 RBIs was the kind of season the team was expecting after he signed his humongous contract. His .313/.429/.598 line with runners in scoring position was pretty solid, too. He has a good outfield arm. He says all of the right things and seems finally to have his head screwed on right. He's got a good outfield arm, and is more capable of making a big play defensively than his counterpart in right.

So why is it that I have NO CONFIDENCE AT ALL IN HIM?

Once a player has a breakout year (in 2002), signs a long-ass contract, and then hits TWO-OH-NINE for an ENTIRE SEASON, it's hard not to think anything can happen. Burrell's 2003 season was one of the worst 500-AB seasons in recent memory; yes, he still hit 20 HRs, and his on-base numbers weren't bad considering, but man, was he awful. You take more than two years to get over a season like that. I'll believe in Burrell one day, and I think he's one of the better outfield options in the game, but for a while, at least, he'll stil be The Guy Who Fell Apart. Sorry, Pat. Keep at it, friend.

Center Field:

Center field wasn't really the problem for the Phillies last year, but they went out and solved it anyhow. You're telling me that either Kenny Lofton, a solid player who hit .335 last year doing part-time work, or Jason Michaels a .400-OBP guy, couldn't have brought in a solid middle-reliever on their own? Or that Thome wasn't worth a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter to a pitching-rich AL team?

Look, we've seen all of the "Aaron Rowand will play great with Phily fans" articles; good guy, plays the "right way" (read: is white), fantastic fielder, is "scrappy"...the list of Dykstra comparisons goes on. But - he hit .270 last year, with poor power and OBP numbers, and doesn't really strike fear into the hearts of anyone. Not that Lofton or Michaels ever did either; we just could have kept one of them on and filled a more important hole in the rotation or bullpen.

All of that having been said, I'm mildly excited for the Rowand era. Even if I think it was a little bit of a shabby return for Thome and a chunk of Thome's salary. At least one of the prospects that came with Rowand (Gio Gonzalez) has pretty great stuff; but if Thome hits 40 home runs this year (I don't think he will), this trade looks pretty stupid.

Right Field:

Now we come a real point of controversy - why try and trade Bobby Abreu? Why would you ever try to trade your team's most consistent offensive producer, a Phillies-size version of Pujols or A-Rod? A guaranteed 20-20 (and perhaps a 30-30) guy? A guy who hit home runs in, what, 9 out of ten games at one point when the Phils were floundering last year? Oh, yeah...

He's a great Latino player in Philly.

Abreu probably isn't really "clutch" if you restrict the definition of the term to "last guy to bat in the ninth with the team down a run." From an anecdotal perspective, very few Phillies fans can remember him coming through in a situation like that...although to be honest, I've been to about 20 Phils games in the last two years, and the only "clutch hitting" performances I can really remember are two by Ryan Howard and David Bell. However, the Phillies always get shellacked when I attend ballgames - they should probably thank their lucky stars that I'm too broke to buy tickets this year.

Okay, enough irrational ranting - despite some lapses in the field, Abreu is the Phillies' most important player coming into 2006. There's just an incredible dishonesty in the way he's being treated. Grrr.

Bench:

Yikes. Most teams really don't have great bench options overall, and the Phils are far from an exception to that rule. The Yankees bench sucked for the last 8-10 years, and they've won the AL East just about every one of those years.

However, if players at key positions (2B, SS, RF) get hurt, the Phillies are fucked.

Abraham Nunez is a passable replacement for Bell at 3rd, as is Alex S. Gonzalez, who wasn't completely awful last year and is a plus defender. Basically, both of their lifetime numbers look like David Bell's 2005, which is not good but means that they'll be serviceable replacements.

Shane Victorino is the fourth outfielder, without much major-league experience. He's old for a prospect, but played pretty well last year, and I think he'll be okay if Rowand or Burrell goes down.

The Sportsline Phillies depth chart shows the delightful 2nd option the Phillies have if Abreu goes down: nobody. Great. So TRADING him would have been an awesome idea, right? Fortunately, Abreu has never, ever been really hurt. Wait - forget I said that.

I can only hope not to see Tomas Perez out of the dugout during a real, live baseball game this year. But I'm probably not going to get that wish.

OK, enough for now. Next time: Pitching, or why the Phillies have 6 0r 7 #3-5 starters instead of an ace. Trust me, it makes sense.

Sigh....