I'm a Phillies Fan this Year, or: Have I Lost My God-Damn Mind?

After a long, long time as a Yankees fan - basically since I've had a fully-formed consciousness of sports and a desire to piss off my family - I'm switching to my adoptive-hometown Phils this year. Yes, this is a dubious choice. While the Yankees have essentially been baseball's dominant team since the 1920s, the Phillies have essentially lost more contests than any other sporting franchise in history. (I THINK this is true...) However, something should be said for the fact that I LIKE the Phillies players. Like most longtime Yankee fans, I hate having to be put in the awkward position of defending Jason Giambi (a cheating meathead), A-Rod (an overpaid, Republican empty suit), and the delightful Gary Sheffield (who plays really hard, fills the "batshit crazy outfielder" role well, but must undeniably be viewed as a jackass.)

Nope - give me the quirky, young (except for David Bell's 120 year-old back), dicey 2006 Phillies. I have them contending for the wild card again this year, probably with whoever loses the Braves/Mets shootout and the Cubs. But seriously, who knows?

Without any further ado, your 2006 Phils...

1st Base: So - this year, the Phillies could have rolled the dice with the possibly lousy health, shoddy fielding, and increasing age of Jim Thome at 1st; or, they could roll the dice with the relative inexperience and questionable plate discipline of Ryan Howard. The funny thing is that the two guys are definitely similar players; Howard often gets compared to Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, or David Ortiz because he's a large, black first baseman, but he's really more similar in makeup to the Adam Dunns and Thomes of the world. Thome and Howard could both easily hit 45 home runs this year while striking out 180-200 times - Howard managed to reach the 100K mark last year in a mere 312 at-bats. Howard could also slump horribly, melt under the pressure, or get depressed by Philly's ambivalent fan base and eat himself out of the league (see: Vaughn).

I don't think he will, though. Sometimes not rushing someone before they're ready turns out to be the right choice; this will be Howard's first full season at age 26, and I think he's now ready to maximize on his sack full 'o power against big-league pitching. He'll still strike out a lot, yes - but probably at a lower rate than last year, which was compromised by a crappy start, and his knowledge of the league, the pitchers, and the parks will develop at a more natural pace. This goes without saying that he's a solid defensive first baseman, whereas Thome was creaky and uncoordinated in the field.

I have a bit of a soft spot for the guy; I think I was at his coming-out party in July when he was hitting about .201 as Thome's replacement and striking out at least three times a game. Wagner gave up a run to put the Phils behind in the top of the 10th; Burrell doubled to kick off the bottom of the inning, then Howard comes up, I look down at my watch 'cause I can't stand to see the guy miss another pitch by 2 feet, and he absolutely cranks a pitch into the second bullpen at Citizens. It was like everything changed instantly; instead of ending up another failed Phils prospect, a young, newly minted star was chugging around the bases.

That'll be my longest one. I promise.

2nd Base: The bizarre Utley/Polanco platoon ended early on last year, which was a good thing. Nothing makes me more pissed-off than to see two above-average major-leaguers platooning at a position; when there are about 10 good second basemen in the entire league, it's just beyond idiotic to keep two of them on your team. Unless you're going to trade him for a guy who sets other guys on fire. Whoops.

That notwithstanding, I think Utley's going to have a similar season to last year, and anyone who follows the game will recognize that 30 HRs and 100 RBIs is pretty dynamite for second base. Utley's also above-average defensively, although his defensive skills can be overestimated if you're only looking at his numbers; I've seen him lose focus a little in key defensive situations, and during one game against the Red Sox he literally looked like he was drunk on the field. Nevertheless, what you're looking at with Utley is essentially Jeff Kent with a better glove and less dickishness.

Shortstop: J-Roll and his still-standing 36-game hitting streak will be a major, major story coming into the 2006 season. The Phillies should hope it goes on forever. It's hard to remember how much Rollins sucked at getting on base at the beginning of last year; there were debates about how the Phils needed a genuine leadoff hitter, etc. When his streak started on August 23, he'd been hitting a scorching .151 in the month of August. Something about him seemed to ease into a rhythm in the last couple months of the season - he wasn't trying to knock anything out of the park, which is a good move for someone who's 5'8". I think The Streak will provide him with some additional motivation at the beginning of the season, and he'll certainly start off better than last April.

I like J-Roll a lot, but - obviously - he frustrates me. I would love to see him really get in touch with his inner Ricky, but I think he hasn't quite got Ricky's instincts or Ricky's crazy. A good reference point for him might be David Eckstein, another tiny shortstop who works counts, uses his size to get walks, and generally concentrates more on being an annoying high-OBP tablesetter. The main difference is that Eck has approximately .0002 % of Rollins' talent.

Need to actually work now, so I'm taking a break and coming back with part II (of III?) later today.